As we operate in the residential real estate sector, the company is affected particularly by the situation in the residential property market and development in Finnish growth centres. The company is also affected by macroeconomic factors, such as economic growth, employment, disposable income, inflation and population growth.
According to the Ministry of Finance’s forecast, the coronavirus pandemic will dampen economic activity everywhere. The current forecast suggests that the economy will contract by 5.5 per cent this year. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the impacts are at their highest in the second quarter, and a strong recovery is expected as early as in the third quarter. This forecast is based on the assumption that the restrictions will remain in place for three months. Prolonged restrictions could have an even more drastic impact; if restrictions remain in place for six months, the economy may contract by as much as 12 per cent. The estimates of the duration of the restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of the coronavirus are constantly changing, which creates exceptional uncertainty in estimating future development. The restrictive measures implemented in response to the coronavirus epidemic will significantly reduce private consumption this year. The decrease in purchasing power caused by temporary layoffs and higher unemployment will also reduce the consumption of goods. (Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic survey 4/2020)
According to the Ministry of Finance’s economic survey, the effects of the coronavirus epidemic on the construction industry may include difficulties with the availability of labour, material shortages and delays to the start of planned new construction projects. Construction volume is predicted to also decline next year and subsequently turn to growth in 2022. The decline in residential real estate investments will be sharpest in 2020 due to delays in starting construction projects during the first part of the year. Residential start-ups are estimated to contract by several thousand units until 2021, followed by a return towards the long-term average, which is slightly under 32,000 units per year. (Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic survey 4/2020)
According to Pellervo Economic Research, increased economic uncertainty makes people postpone their plans to buy a home. When the economy dips, many people earn lower incomes due to layoffs and redundancies. They may be unwilling to take a home loan in such circumstances.
Effects of urbanisation
According to Pellervo Economic Research (PTT), the trend of urbanisation has continued in Finland even stronger than expected, and rapid urbanisation is currently the most significant driving force behind the development of the housing market. People in cities want to live in city centres even if their job is located outside the city centre. The significance of location and services is becoming increasingly highlighted in people’s housing needs. Commuting from cities to rural areas for work is growing substantially.
Households living in rental homes outnumber those living in owner-occupied housing in Helsinki. The use of rental housing will also grow to exceed the use of owner-occupied housing in Tampere and Turku in the near future. This is a strong sign of the acceleration of urbanisation on the one hand and the change in housing preferences on the other hand. For younger generations, owning a home is not as significant as it was for previous generations. Owning a home is also no longer seen as the only way to accumulate wealth. Instead, people are increasingly attracted by the freedom provided by rental housing. This will support the development of the rental housing market for a long time to come.
Kojamo responds to the trends of urbanisation, digitalisation and communality in accordance with its strategy, providing its customers with apartments with good locations and services that make daily life easier, increase the attractiveness of housing and improve the sense of community. Our aim is to develop a networked service platform that will enable agile innovation implementation in cooperation with other operators. Kojamo’s properties serve as a platform to which the new services can easily be connected.
Page updated 7 May 2020